Re-evaluating Investing

I pulled most of my money out when the war in Iran started. The market has mostly held up, and nobody knows how long that lasts. Still, the frame feels different. I need to be clear about what I am doing. Going all in on SPY at these levels is not something I would do.

The world will not be the same after this war. The U.S. wants to act like an empire that answers to no one.

What I am treating as given

  1. The United States government is lying about the basics right now: jobs, inflation, growth, the rest of it.
  2. The market is being steered by people who are personally enriching themselves from the instability.
  3. Without the petrodollar, U.S. markets take a hit. For years, dollars got recycled into U.S. assets because so much trade had to run through them.
  4. Carney wants heavy investment in Canada and more trade with other countries. He talks about Canada as an "energy superpower." He just won a majority, so he has room to move.
  5. Most of the money still in the market is not poor people’s grocery money.
  6. Last time there was a serious oil shock, broad equities cracked and energy held up better.

What might be true

  1. Maybe there will never be a real crash again. Inequality is so extreme that the rich could hold their positions forever and never face a forced sale.
  2. If the market is rigged the way I suspect, the unwind could look like a controlled demolition. Pump hope until retail piles in, sell the top, drop the floor before most people can react.
  3. The petrodollar era might be over. China, Iran, and Russia were already drifting away, the war speeds that up.
  4. Iran probably does not fold.
  5. Trump probably does not fold either. If it comes to it, a ground invasion is on the table.
  6. The midterms either do not go ahead as normal, or Republicans lean on suppression to keep seats.
  7. Even if Republicans lose Congress, Democrats will not end the war.
  8. America has stumbled at every turn in this war and will keep stumbling and pissing off the world.
  9. Carney plays a long game and could have twelve years to push his plan.

Put that together and I expect oil shocks, energy stress, pressure on the petrodollar, and a messier global order than the one we got used to.

U.S. markets look risky to me mainly because they leaned on dollar hegemony and the petrodollar recycle. I would rather not lean on U.S. for that reason alone. The old “just buy SPY” idea assumes America stays the undisputed center and the dollar stays the choke point for trade. In a multipolar setup, that assumption does not hold.

AI still wins even if the it all goes ugly. Google is the safest name here.

Energy is the obvious trade in that setup. An American energy ETF is probably a solid hold. If Carney gets what he wants, Canadian energy shares in that upside.

Canadian mining and resources should benefit too. They are not a pure hedge against energy inflation, but they sit in the middle of Carney's pitch for Canada as a serious energy player and for job growth here. I would not have less here than I would in energy since they do not directly benefit from energy inflation.

On that basis I am putting cash into a Canadian energy ETF, a Canadian mining and resources ETF, and a broad Canadian market ETF. And keeping my holding in Google.