Can the market ever crash?
There is an economic theory that capitalism will eventually lead to all assets being bought by the wealthy. The explanation is very intuitive. The wealthy already own many assets. Every single month, they gain interest on those assets. They gain so much interest that they cannot possibly spend it all in one month. So, with their extra cash on hand, they buy even more assets and their wealth compounds. This eventually leads to them buying all the assets in the world.
This theory makes a lot of sense. It seems to be where the world is heading if not already there. The reason home prices keep going up is because the wealthy need somewhere to park their money. And my suspicion is the same thing is happening with the stock market. The question is what are the implications of this?
Traditionally when there is economic pressure, the market suffers and sometimes will even crash. The idea is people need to sell their holdings in the market causing a downturn, which, if it continues can lead to a full-blown crash. But what if the entire market was held by people who would never need to sell? Would there ever be a crash? There could be oil shocks, there could be inflation, there could be a war, but the wealthy will never actually need to sell. Sure, the people who actually need the money will sell but if they hold such a small portion of the total market then the market will never crash.
There are many statistics that say that young people are not even contributing to their retirement funds, most people are living paycheck to paycheck, and they simply do not have the money to buy assets. So the only people who are buying assets and driving the prices up are the wealthy, who in turn have no reason to ever exit.
This has a strange effect. The market will keep going up because the wealthy will keep buying. Anyone with disposable income will make a lot of money, at least relative to them. And most people will never even enter the market. If there is economic pressure, there may be a small sell-off, but never a large one.
The question is, can this happen forever? If you take it to its logical extreme, it means the wealthy will own the entire market and just be trading with each other. The market will no longer work for regular people. There will be revolt and regulations will change to prevent this from happening.
But until that happens, the market will never crash.